As we touched upon in the last article, ISIS has now been expelled from its so called “caliphate”. No longer do they control major strongholds and cities in Iraq and Syria. Well over 90% of their territory is now controlled by others, with only a few small towns still under ISIS’s influence. But once again, this does not mean the end of this group. Only a strategy shift, as well as a shift to new geographic locations on other continents. Let’s take a look at what this now means for ISIS groups around the world.

To understand their shift in focus, a deeper understanding of strategy must be had. The Islamic State’s strategy was to take a region that was experiencing instability and make it worse by destabilizing the area even further. They would then sweep in the region they had destabilized ushering in a rapid and savage change to Islamic State rule. New tactics are now being employed. ISIS will shift into insurgency mode, using series of guerrilla tactics and hit-and-run attacks. So it is only natural that ISIS’s focus is shifting to other parts of the world with instability such as Iraq and Syria were experiencing when they deployed their tactics.

The Islamic State’s rival as the global leader in terrorism is that of al-Qaeda. This is the group formerly lead by Osama bin Laden and responsible for 9/11. Al-Qaeda has taken a different strategy with a slow implementation of their law after gaining the locals trust. While most of the world has been focused on ISIS, al-Qaeda has had several years to make progress, bide its time, and reenergize its leadership. To take a detailed look at the future of ISIS, al-Qaeda’s future must also be looked at. They now have strong affiliates in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Africa, and Somalia. In a future article we will further look at al-Qaeda and it’s rising leader (spoiler alert: it’s another Bin Laden).

Now that we can see how ISIS’s strategy differs from other terror networks, as well as what they are looking for to continue their campaign, where are they headed next? Let’s turn our attention to Africa. Of the 50 least developed countries according to the UN, 34 are in Africa. As well as over 500 million sub-Saharan Africans live on $1.90 a day or less. Many African country’s governments are in shambles, and wide spread starvation is taking over the continent. This is an excellent formula for ISIS growth.

The U.S.’s role in fighting terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa was thrust onto center stage when 4 US soldiers were killed in Niger. If you can’t locate Niger on a map, or know that we had almost 1,000 soldiers there don’t worry, some US Senators didn’t even know. We have had troops in sub-Saharan Africa for almost 15 years, entering at a point in time when many of those countries were spiraling into states of instability and lawlessness. We then increased our presence there around 2011 and 2012 when northern Mali fell to jihadi groups, and again more recently when ISIS affiliates have grown and in response to the attacks in Niger.

So why were we in Niger to begin with? The country of Niger has maintained good relations with the United States, and is conveniently located bordering 5 of the most unstable African nations; Mali, Algeria, Libya, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria. All of these countries feature an ISIS or al-Qaeda affiliate. US troops are here to help eliminate terrorist safe havens in these countries that lack little or no central government. The US troops, killed near the Mali border, were ambushed by ISIS in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) who operate in that country. Al-Qaeda also has a group who operates in Mali, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), as well as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) who operate in Algeria.

Libya features one of the Islamic States’s most thriving groups the Tripoli Province. The suicide bomber in the attack on the Ariana Grande concert had ties to Libya. Boko Haram is ISIS’s west Africa province, in Nigeria, and best known in the news for kidnapping several hundred school girls. While Burkina Faso features the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel.

As you can see with this many ISIS and AQ provinces in this one region of Africa, the US felt a need to position troops in the region in Niger. The US is also building a $100 million base in Agadez, Niger. They will use this base to launch drone attacks into the aforementioned countries. The US last month conducted around 30 drone strikes in Libya and Somalia, including the first air strike against ISIS’s affiliate in Somalia. Previous air strikes in the country had only been focused on al-Qaeda’s group there, al-Shabab.

With the caliphate in Iraq and Syria in shambles, Somalia is attracting fighters from the defeated caliphate. As a result the US has recently doubled the number of air strikes and ground troops in the country. We has been hesitant to be active in Somalia ever since the “Black Hawk Down” incident in 1993, while the central government of the country has struggled for years. But the need has arisen to be more active there, and we certainly have established a larger presence. ISIS in Somalia has received funding from Iraq and Syria, and received supplies and weapons from San’a Province, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Yemen which lies just across the gulf of Aden from Somalia. Somalia also just recently experienced their largest ever terror attack when a truck bomb killed over 350 individuals in the capital city. Things only seem to be deteriorating more in this war torn country.

Speaking of largest terror attacks, Egypt experienced theirs last month. Around 311 people were killed in a gun and bombing attack on a Sufi mosque in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. The attack was believed to be carried out by Sinai Province, ISIS’s affiliate in Egypt. With two countries such as Somalia and Egypt, who have dealt with terrorism for decades to just recently have their largest ever attacks, goes a long way in demonstrating the fact that we haven’t seen the last of ISIS or radical Islamic terrorism.

While we’ve explored some prominent ISIS affiliates, and areas where they will take their fighting and resources, there are many more around the world. Khorasan Province, ISIS-K in Afghanistan, Najd Province in Saudi Arabia, Caucasus Province in the Caucasus region of Russia, Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines, and around 30 others spreading across other countries such as India, Indonesia, Sudan, Lebanon, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh. The attacker in the October truck attack that killed 8 in Manhattan was from Uzbekistan, and the December 11th attempted suicide bomber in New York City was from Bangladesh.

While the Islamic State’s caliphate is virtually non existent, the threat still remains. Expelling ISIS from holding territory in Iraq and Syria was a great victory. But we must now prepare for a change in their narrative and location. They will now rely on their affiliates to spread hate, instability, fear, and division. Their presence on the internet will be even harder to exterminate, and continues to recruit and spew propaganda. ISIS also went through an insurgency stage like this in 2008, due to increases in US troops in Iraq around that time period, and defeated worse than they are now in 2010. ISIS’s leader is still at large, whereas many of their leadership was not at that time. And yet they came back stronger. This stage in the fight against ISIS could be the most important in getting rid of the group once and for all.

Sources:

“A Deeping US Military Involvement in Somalia”, Soufan Center, 11-22-17
“Affiliate World Map”, intelcenter.com.
African Poverty Facts, worldhunger.org
Gohel, Sajjan, “How Uzbekistan became ripe recruiting territory for ISIS”, CNN.com, 11-1-17
Guled, Abdi, Anna, Cara, “US Targeted IS in Somalia could be a ‘significant’ threat”, apnews.com, 11-13-17
Hassan, Hassan, “ISIL 2.0: a terror group in full insurgency mode”, the national.ae, 11-15-17
“Islamic State thriving in Somalia:UN Report”, yahoo.com, 11-10-17
Lebovich, Andrew, “The Real Reason US Troops are in Niger”, foreignpolicy.com,
Leigh, Karen, French, Jason, Juan, Jovi, “Islamic State and Its Affiliates” graphics.wsj.com
Lister, Charles, “Al-Qaeda vs. ISIS”, Middle East Institute, 11/17
McLaughlin, Elizabeth, “Behind the ISIS group that ambushed US forces in Niger”, abcnews.com, 10-18-17
Rahmani, Bardia, Tanco, Andrea, “ISIS’s Growing Caliphate: Profiles of Affiliates”, Wilson Center.
UN list of least developed countries, UN.org
Youssef, Nour, “Motives in Egypt’s Deadliest Terrorist Attack: Religion and Revenge”, nytimes.com, 12-1-17