With ISIS having lost around 98% of its territory, its proclaimed caliphate is in near defeat. But is it defeated? To answer that question, brings about a few more questions that we will explore. As with al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, where is the Islamic State’s famed leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi? Is he dead as the Russians claim, or is he deep in hiding as Osama bin Laden was for 10 years. Lastly, we will look at if he is dead, does it even matter? All questions that must be considered to evaluate ISIS and the global face of terrorism moving forward.

Russian airstrikes in mid-2017 placed a large death scare revolving around Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, with the Russians claiming that they were 99% confident they had killed him. The U.S. military made no official statement regarding his death, as they stated there was a significant lack of evidence to support that claim. General Stephen Townsend was even quoted as saying “It’d make me feel better to know that he was dead….I suppose it probably doesn’t really matter”.

In September of 2017, Baghdadi broke his silence with a 46 minute audio recording. The recording mocked the U.S., rallied remaining troops against Assad’s regime, and stated they would remain even after the loss of their territory. This message proved the air strikes in May did in fact not kill al-Baghdadi. Along with the fact that ISIS did not announce and mourn his death, as well as appoint a successor.

Another year has gone by, and al-Baghdadi again disappeared with complete silence. That is until last week. Baghdadi released a 55 minute audio speech for the first time in nearly a year. He called on his followers to continue the fight despite recent defeats. He praised recent attacks in Canada and Europe, and congratulated Muslims for the Eid al-Adha festival and feast that week. So those references again proved the message to be recently recorded within the last two weeks.

He was quoted as saying “for hardship comes a relief and a way out”. As well as urging those to “trust in promises and His victory” and reassuring them “scale of victory or defeat is not dependent on a city or town”. This was a tactic many saw coming.

Going forward, with Baghdadi still at the helm, ISIS will be able to frame their defeat with a unique religious spin. They can use the concept of Hijrah. It gives them a sort of ideological firepower, where defeat can be marketed as hardship, martyrdom, and only temporary. Hijrah is the concept of strategic withdraw and removal from a situation where you are against insurmountable odds. This originated with the Prophet Muhammed when he fled Mecca for Medina after losing battles. He was then able years later to return and retake Mecca. The day of his “flight” or Hijrah, was in 622AD and is the start of the first day of the Islamic calendar. So, this struggle is seen as a test from Allah, creating a temporary setback. A religious means to not seem weak or that they are giving up. They have even begun to market their flag as not representing ownership of a specific piece of land or area, but as claiming sovereignty over whatever area the black flag fly’s above. So they believe they have entered Hijrah and will come back victorious once their test is completed.

So with Baghdadi being alive, it makes one wonder if it would matter if he had been killed? One difference between the Islamic State’s Baghdadi and Al-Qaeda’s Bin Laden, is the interaction with the public. Al-Baghdadi has only ever made one public appearance since taking over as the group’s leader, and that was 4 years ago in 2014 when he announced himself as the new caliph. As we’ve mentioned, his audio statements are less frequent as well, coming about a year apart. ISIS is much more decentralized than al-Qaeda was, and Baghdadi being the public face is not necessary.

If he was to be killed, it might affect morale, but it would probably have little impact on the day-to-day operations of the organization. The Islamic State is being run behind the scenes by former military officials who served under Saddam Hussein, and other loyalists to his regime. With most likely candidates being Iyad al-Obaidi or Ayad al-Jumaili. Both have been his top two lieutenants since many top leadership officials were killed in airstrikes in 2016. Most of these officials were held within American prisons in the mid-2000’s, where they met many jihadists fighters forming long lasting relationships.

It would even turn him into a martyr for his supporters, and evaluate him to an even higher status. His successor doesn’t even need to possess the high level of credentials he had, with a PhD in Islamic studies and a descendent of the Prophet Muhammed. His legitimacy is uniquely tied to him, and how he resurrected the organization. He will be known as the man who occupied a territory the size of Great Britain consisting of 1/3 of Iraq and half of Syria.

ISIS leaders are likely hiding in the Middle Euphrates River Valley border area between Iraq and Syria. This is an area controlled by Russia and Iran, and harder for the US to deal with. Additionally, ISIS still has access to oil in northern Syria, and can stage hit and run attacks from these lawless border areas. They are still believed to be making millions from extortion, oil, kidnapping, and taxes.

The Pentagon and Department of Defense recently released statements that the Islamic state is “well-positioned” to rise again. The Defense Department’s Intelligence Report even states that ISIS still has 28,000-32,000 fighters remaining, spread across both Iraq and Syria. This number is quite a bit higher than we thought. They had previously said that ISIS at its peak in 2015 was 33,000 soldiers. So obviously, one of them was incorrect. After the U.S. has invested 4 years of time, $14.3 billion, and 24,566 air strikes, hopefully they are not at the same level they were in 2015.

Thousands of fighters won’t just go away. They will revamp their tactics into other violent strategies, and in other destabilized areas such as Afghanistan, Libya, and sub-Saharan Africa. With the very real possibility that they once again reconcile and rejoin al-Qaeda. Even though being scattered weakens their chances to launch offensives, remain unified, and less training, they can still wreak havoc. Even just within recent weeks they have assassinated local government officials, blown up pipe lines and electrical grids, hijacked trucks, and killed 100’s in bombings. They seem to have regained a bit of momentum this summer.

As well as more coordinated attacks than just the lone wolf type that generally gets discussed as being their new strategy. Before the Islamic State ever even controlled territory in a caliphate they planned and pulled off large attacks, so there is no doubt that they still can after the loss of their caliphate. In Europe between 2014 and 2016, there were 38 terrorist plots. Only 6 of them were carried out by one individual. They are normally organized and orchestrated by cells and networks. Lone wolf attacks are actually quite rare. Even ISIS inspired attacks in the US have come with the attacker having communicated online with ISIS personnel.

Even in liberated areas, decades old disputes between Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds still remain. To the point where the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq is in territory disputes with the Iraqi government. Now will come the part where towns must be rebuilt, and hundreds of thousands of displaced individuals must be brought back. The lack of government help for rebuilding infrastructure such as electrical and water stations, and other forms of reconstruction, can also fuel another ISIS comeback. In 2017 the U.S. State Department asked for hundreds of millions to help with reconstruction costs, and Saudi Arabia recently pledged funds for that process as well. Just two weeks ago President Trump announced that he is ending the $230 million in civilian funds for Syria. The U.S. is in a tough situation. Funds to help stabilize and rebuild the country will help to oppress ISIS, but also been seen as a support to President Bashar al-Assad and his victorious regime. This has allowed countries like Russia and Iran to invest in rebuilding costs because they don’t mind supporting Assad. The Trump administration stated the withdrawing of our funding will be offset by $300 million from Gulf states, mainly Saudi Arabia.

The U.S. has a complicated tightrope to walk. National security is moving from non-state actors such as ISIS and al-Qaeda to state actors such as Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia. As Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Brett McGurk recently put it, the final U.S. phase will be “a very significant military operation because we have a significant number of ISIS fighters holed up in a Final area of the Middle Euphrates Valley”. So this mission is not over, and ISIS has not gone away. And with both Iraq and Syria still destabilized, this issue will continue to be a focal point of U.S. International relations and a matter of national security.

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