As many of you have now most likely heard, the U.S. carried out a target drone strike killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.  He was in a convoy of vehicles on his way to the airport in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq.  The strike took place just outside the airport.  

While many may not be familiar with this man, I saw one Iranian reporter compare his killing to as if George Washington, Abe Lincoln, and Captain America all rolled into one was suddenly killed.  Soleimani was responsible for coordinating and planning hundreds of attacks that have killed American troops since the Iraq invasion in 2003.  His use of IED’s were horrendous, and thousands of U.S. soldiers have been wounded as a result.  To simply, this was a major major blow to Iran’s leadership and military.   

Soleimani was the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force.  This is Iran’s elite intelligence and fighting force that is responsible for carrying out attacks, and spreading Iran’s agenda outside of their borders.  They are the overseas are of the Revolutionary Guard.  Think of them such as U.S. equivalents to the CIA and Navy SEALS.  These proxy groups are ones that we have continuously encountered in places such as Lebanon, Syria, and mainly, Iraq.   

Recent encounters with these proxy groups, specifically one called Kataib Hezbollah (KH), had led to this escalation.  On December 27^th, KH launched rocket attacks on a location where U.S. troops were stationed.  One U.S. contractor was killed (along with some Iraqi troops), and several U.S. soldiers were wounded.  We then launched drone attacks on three of KH’s locations in Iraq and Syria, killing around 20, 3 of which were Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force.  On New Year’s Day supports of these proxy groups, and members of the groups, stormed our U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.  This led to the evacuation of U.S. personnel inside the embassy, and the rapid deployment of troops from the Gulf, as well as hundreds more from Fort Bragg in North Carolina.  An additional 4,000 troops being deployed to the area is also very likely.  The U.S Embassy has also now released a statement for all U.S citizens to leave Iraq immediately.   

So, what does this all mean.  Well, that’s a very complicated question with a complicated answer.  Iran is currently the number one state sponsor of terrorism.  There is no doubt about that, and Soleimani was the puppet master pulling those strings.  The U.S.’s response was that this attack was carried out due to Soleimani planning more attacks against the U.S. like has been shown over recent weeks.  I truly believe that to be the case.  But he has been planning and carrying out attacks against U.S. interests for years.  This is now a very hard redline that has been drawn by the Trump Administration.  The Iranian’s, and Soleimani himself, DID NOT see this type of strike coming as a response to their recent attack.  Soleimani had made taunting statements in recent days, paraded himself around freely and carelessly, and his locations were publicly known.  Including his travels to the airport.  

Maybe it doesn’t seem this way to the public eye, but this assassination is bigger than Osama bin Laden.  Soleimani commanded more troops, carried out more attacks, killed more individuals, and reeked more havoc than Osama bin Laden.  But most importantly, besides being a terrorist, he was also a head of state.  Arguably, he was the second most important and influential person in Iran, right behind the Supreme Leader Ayatollah.  He has the highest favorability rating in Iran.  He was Captain Iran.  Again, this is a hard red line that has been drawn.  

So how will the Iranian and their supporters respond?  Most believe in the immediate they will begin with threats and demonstrations.  Those two things have already started.  Massive protests and parades are occurring in Tehran, the capital of Iran, as this is being written.  The streets are filled with protesters and mourners alike.  Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has released a statement saying they will seek revenge.  The Supreme Leader Grant Ayatollah Khamenei has instituted three days of mourning, and stated that this assassination serves a double the motivation of the resistance against the United States and Israel.  They have also already named his replacement, Ismail Quani.  Quani has been the deputy commander of the Quds Force since 1997.   

Threats and statements have also come out of Iraq, where much of this conflict, and the drone strike killing Soleimani took place.  One of the top Islamic Shia clerics, Muqtada al-Sadr has reactivated is Mahdi Army.  His Mahdi Army was another proxy group of Shia fighter’s who battled US troops during the Iraqi invasion in 2003.  They were disbanded by Sadr in 2008.  The President of Iraq has also condemned the strike.  He has called for an emergency session of parliament tomorrow to make “decisive decisions that put an end to U.S. presence inside Iraq”.  He called this strike a breach of the deal that permits U.S. presence in Iraq, as it was not in an effort to stop or defeat ISIS. 

So, where does this all lead.  Most experts and analysts do not expect an all-out war.  The threats and the demonstrations occurring were to be expected.   They would look extremely weak if they didn’t come out with threats after a major attack like this.  In the short-term, we will most likely see retaliation attacks against U.S. targets in Iraq.  We could also see attacks against U.S allies like Israel, and Saudi Arabia.  Possibly even more missile strikes against Saudi oil facilities like last year that crippled 50% of Saudi Arabia’s production.  Oil prices have already shot up today. But rest assured, Iran will tread very carefully.  Whether you agree with the decision to kill Qassem Soleimani or not, the fact remains that this was a major decision, a major power play, and our administration has sent a clear message.