On Thursday, August 26th, just one week ago, the world saw a terrorist attack carried out that killed 13 of our brave U.S. soldiers and over 170 Afghan civilians. This atrocity was conducted by an obscure group, with a confusing name, in a complicated decades old war. The group is ISIS-K.
Throughout the rest of this article, I will refer to them as IS-K. ISIS stands for Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (al-Sham). This group is not in Iraq or Syria, they are in Khorasan, which is what the K stands for. So calling the group ISIS-K is a bit misleading. Khorasan is a term to describe the ancient region that comprised parts of Afghanistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
You might be thinking to yourself, didn’t we defeat ISIS in 2019? And kill their leader Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi in October of 2019, so who are these people? Well, that’s where ISIS affiliates come into play. In June 2014, ISIS was sweeping across Iraq, capturing the city of Mosul (and many others), and declaring a caliphate and establishing an Islamic State. Terrorist factions, mostly former al-Qaeda groups, were inspired by ISIS’s efforts and flocked to their campaign, pledging allegiance to their ideals and leader. When all was said and done, the appeal of the Islamic State had awarded them more than three dozen affiliates.
Once becoming an official ISIS affiliate, they could receive funding and support from the core group in Iraq and Syria. While ISIS had spread to other parts of the world, including Egypt, the Philippines, sub-Saharan Africa, and Libya; Afghanistan was one of its more successful franchises. Being so far from Syria, they were often able to act pretty autonomously.
They’ve been around since November 2014 when they split from the TPP, which is the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (which is quite different from the Taliban in Afghanistan). Disgruntled TPP commanders were frustrated with some of TPP’s actions, and along with a few al-Qaeda members, and some Afghan Taliban members, they formed the current IS-K. In early 2015 they were officially accepted as an official ISIS branch by then ISIS leader Abu Bakar al-Baghadadi. They had strongholds in mainly the eastern portion of Afghanistan. Their leader even went to Iraq to study Baghadadi’s model, and implemented it upon his return to Afghanistan.
You might ask yourself, what is IS-K’s goal? Their goal is to establish a caliphate in Central and South Asia. Similar to the one that ISIS was able to establish in Iraq and Syria. They would then implement strict conservative Sharia Law, governing the region. Their recent moves and attacks to cause unrest are all in an effort to carve out some territory where it can begin re-establishing their caliphate. They see a unstable Afghanistan, as Iraq and Syria were in the early to mid-2010’s (and still are) as a prime location to implement this plan.
A surprising revelation to many, that while the Taliban and IS-K are both ruthless organizations, they are sworn enemies. Even to the point that when the Taliban signed a peace deal with the U.S. in February 2020, shortly thereafter IS-K released a statement declaring a long slow war against the Taliban. Why are the two extremist groups operating in the same country such bitter enemies?
It has to do with ideological and strategical core differences between the two groups. Ideologically, they follow a slightly different brand of Islam, that we won’t take a deep dive into in this article, from the Taliban. The Taliban’s brand of Sunni Islam came out of India, while ISIS’s came out of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. Strategically, they also see the Taliban as an apostate group, for working with the U.S., Pakistani, and Afghanistan governments. They label the Taliban as “filthy nationalists”, because they are only concerned with obtaining power inside Afghanistan and not fighting for a global Islamic caliphate. The peace talks between the U.S. and the Taliban have given IS-K even more ammunition to paint them in this light. Additionally, IS-K seems to be more popular with youth, and the Taliban more popular with older generations, even those who fought against the Soviets in the 1980’s.
ISIS and al-Qaeda also have their differences. In-fighting and competition between terrorist groups throughout history has led to splits. This is true for al-Qaeda, where splits led to the eventual creation of ISIS, and splits within the Pakistani Taliban which led to the creation of IS-K. Al-Qaeda and ISIS have had years worth of competition, causing destruction in weak and failing states. Both are extremely dangerous organizations, but they differ in how they believe an Islamic State should be implemented, by what means, and on what timeline. Al-Qaeda did not agree with the senseless killing of women, children and their fellow Muslims the way ISIS does. They see that as a way to erode support. And they want a slower approach to declaring a caliphate, winning hearts and minds along the way. Not quickly taking it by force the way ISIS conducts themselves.
As far as number of fighters, IS-K had most likely in the 500-1,000 range, but the Taliban has freed 1,000’s of ISIS fighters when they’ve emptied prisons in their quick province by province take over of the country. Now they estimate to have north of 4,000 fighters. But that won’t be the final tally. Experts have already seen ISIS affiliates announcements that they are sending foreign fighters from other countries into Afghanistan.
You will see IS-K grow in number due to others flocking to their country to join their cause. And IS-K themselves have stormed prisons in eastern Afghanistan, freeing hundreds of their fighters. Improvements in mobilization and communication have led to the blending of international forces from individuals from many nations and ethnicities. Locals tend to join these extremists groups for better wages, more services, or alternative to their current political landscape. Foreign fighters tend to join because they are extremely passionate about the ideological vision of the group.
IS-K tactics are extremely brutal. They are on the low rung at the moment behind the Taliban and al-Qaeda. They must make noise and display big attacks to stay relevant in their eyes. This will help to keep fighters, and attract new ones. Part of IS-K’s M.O. is that they thrive on high-casualty attacks. While the Taliban would typically try to concentrate their attacks against military, security, government, or political forces, IS-K tries to cause terror by inflicting harm on the highest number of civilians as possible. If they can attack groups of Shia Muslims, that is even better in their opinion, attacking a Muslim group who they differ with ideological. One such example was an attack in May 2020 in a Shia neighborhood of Kabul, against a maternity hospital. The attack killed numerous mothers and newborn babies. They will even target funerals, because the tend to attract a high number of civilians. By April of this year, they had claimed responsibility for 77 attacks in Afghanistan in just the first four months of 2021.
Some have claimed that IS-K is a new group, that has just materialized from this current situation. But the U.S. has even fought with IS-K for years. Most notably when President Trump’s use of the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) against an IS-K stronghold in 2017. U.S. forces killed their founder in a U.S. airstrike in 2016. We killed their second leader in a special forces raid in 2017, their third leader in a U.S. airstrike in July of 2017, their fourth leader in an airstrike in 2018, and their fifth and sixth leaders have been arrested. So we have been fighting their forces for some time now.
While we may be out of the country, the threat of more attacks from IS-K is very real. The Taliban takeover has created a very permissive environment for IS-K to operate. They saw this as an opportunity to start attacking Taliban security and intelligence now. The attack at the airport was a perfect example of IS-K trying to undermine public confidence in the Taliban. And it may have just worked.
Intelligence had warned for months that a potential IS-K attack could be likely during the Biden Administration’s exit from the country. Both German and U.S. intelligence had stressed this in the past couple of weeks. Crowds of civilians who were waiting to be processed to enter the airport provided a ripe opportunity for disaster. The Taliban takeover has created a very permissive environment for IS-K to operate. They will use these opportunities to exploit the security vacuum. President Biden even stated earlier the week of the attack that “Every day we’re on the ground is another day that we know ISIS-K is seeking to target the airport and attack both US and allied forces and innocent civilians.”
On the morning of the 26th, a suicide bomber with 25 pounds of explosives in a vest, was able to get by Taliban checkpoints. He eventually reached the Abbey Gate portion of Hamid Karzai International Airport. Slipping down into the drainage ditch where citizens were waiting to be processed. He tried to enter the gate, but was denied entry. He most likely detonated his vest while U.S. troops were conducting physical checks of people in the line. IS-K’s attack was a breach of the 2020 Trump Peace deal which stated “The Taliban will prevent any group or individual in Afghanistan from threatening the security of the United States and its allies, and will prevent them from recruiting, training, and fundraising and will not host them.”
Many believe the Taliban will not be able to stave off IS-K attacks without outside support, support and intelligence they no longer have from the U.S. IS-K will use every opportunity to disrupt their already weak ability to create order and govern. While they likely could not topple the Taliban, they can certainly make it difficult for them. Since the group operates primarily in one area, and supported by the Pakistani’s, countering them in just Afghanistan won’t squash the group. Pakistan must play a role in diminishing the group as well. Although one thing is for certain, no matter who is in charge, Afghanistan will remain contested territory.
Sources:
Cagnassola, Mary Ellen; “Germany Warns of ‘Increase’ in Islamic State Suicide Bombers Entering Kabul”; 08/24/2021; Newsweek.com
Gollum, Mark; “Why ISIS-K poses a significant security threat in Afghanistan as civilians, troops attempt to flee”; 08/26/2021; CBC.ca
Todd, Brian; “What do we know about ISIS branch threatening Kabul evacuation”; cnn.com
Watts, Clint; “Deciphering Competition Between al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State”; July 2016, ctc.usma.edu
Eaton, Joshua; “What is ISIS-K, the group that killed 13 U.S. service members and at least 170 civilians in Afghanistan?”; 08/28/2021, yahoo.com
Sayed, Abdul; “ISIS-K is ready to fight the Taliban. Here’s how the group became a major threat in Afghanistan”; 08/29/2021, washingtonpost.com
Maher, Shiraz; “Who is IS-K and what do they want?”; 08/28/2021; newstatesman.com
Allam, Hannah; Mekhennet, Souad; “ISIS-K, the group behind the Kabul airport attack, sees both Taliban and the U.S. as enemies”; 08/26/2021; washingtonpost.com
Clarke, Colin; Sayed, Adbul; “Nineteen Years after 9/11, Afghanistan Faces a New Foe: The Islamic State”; 9/11/2020, Newsweek.com